报告人：Wenji Zhou (周文戟)
报告人单位：Energy Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
报告时间：2017年4月5日 （星期三）上午 9:30 -11:30
报告题目：Understanding Interactions of Energy Market, Technology and Policy and The Implications of Energy Models
摘要： Strong interactions exit among energy market, technology and policy. A deep study on these interactions will further our understanding of energy market structure evolution, energy and low carbon technology development, and therefore promote energy policy design to strengthen the guidance of industry development towards a dedicated commitment. The observation of international energy markets in the past two decades indicates that different energy markets collectively performed several cycles of divergence and convergence, along with remarkable breakthrough of energy technology and transformation of energy policy. This study takes example of shale gas/oil evolution in the United States, and coal-to-oil development in China, to reveal that though these technologies are widely viewed as the important options to realize energy independence and ensure national energy security, a more fundamental driving force lies in the divergence of different markets among energy products that provides an arbitrage technological basis for the capital flow between these markets. Currently, the world energy industries are undergoing “supply-side structural reforms” with various forms and deregulation processes, which in turn, are exerting substantial impacts on the development of energy technology and market.Within this context, the improvement and integration of different energy assessment models is becoming a promising research orient with more practical implications. Integrated assessment models are considered as powerful tools to analyze policies regarding energy and climate change. These models feature an inclusive description of energy technology parameters and therefore are able to assess various policy and technology options by establishing scenarios. However, they are insufficient to reflect impacts from energy markets variation, and interactions between end-use sectors and energy industry. Future work may include a systemic combination of these models with other statistic models to better understand these interactions.
Wenji Zhou joined IIASA's Energy (ENE) Program as a Research Scholar in 2016. At IIASA, Dr. Zhou's work focuses on 1) Analyzing climate policy, energy policy and industry policy under the national targets; 2) Assessing the impacts of different energy price scenarios on energy transitions; 3) Exploring ways of integrating resource efficiency issues into a more comprehensive assessment model. His general interests lie in analyzing pathways to achieve the objective of energy development and climate change mitigation. He also keeps a close eye on the transition of energy industry and other resource industries under the challenges of market uncertainty, energy security and climate change.
Dr. Zhou received his PhD and MSc degrees in Chemical Engineering from Tsinghua University, China, where he conducted research on the assessment of energy technology and policy under the challenges of market uncertainty, energy security, and climate change, as well as the accounting of energy use and CO2 emissions in energy-intensive industrial sectors of China. Before joining IIASA, he worked as an oil market analyst at the China National Aviation Fuel Group (CNAF), where he investigated the development of the oil market, and regulations and policies in energy industry.