【讲座时间】2026年11月4日  16：00-17：00

【讲座地点】商学院大楼405会议室

【邀请部门】管理科学与工程系

 

 

【讲座摘要】

Drawing on the mechanisms of economist behavior and the nuances surrounding the role of general and task-specific experience, we revisit the relationship between the experience of macroeconomic forecasters and their herding behavior and accuracy. We employ a novel set of over 2.3 million forecasts by 4,574 economists, across 80 countries and decompose each forecaster’s experience into general-prior and indicator-specific. We find that forecaster experience presents a non-linear relationship with their herding and accuracy levels. Perhaps more importantly, the interplay between general experience and indicator expertise is crucial: economists with limited indicator-specific expertise initially deviate from the consensus of their peers, then transition to herding, before starting to deviate again after several years. General-prior experience influences this behavior, by accelerating herding across all levels of expertise. With respect to forecast accuracy, while general-prior experience is not consistently beneficial, it can offset the relative absence of indicator-specific expertise. We propose a procedure which generates debiased consensus forecasts and find them to outperform the actual consensus for several key indicators.

 

【主讲人简介】

Professor Kostas Nikolopoulos，Associate Dean Internationalisation, (Faculty) Durham University Business School
Professor in Business Information Systems and Analytics at Durham University Business School
Associate Co-Director, Institute for Hazard, Risk, and Resilience (IHRR)
Director, IHRR Forecasting Laboratory
Co-Editor-in-Chief Journal of the Operational Research Society