报告题目：Two -Way Capital Flows and Global Imbalances

报告人：许志伟，上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院，副教授

报告时间：2018年5月18日(周五) 上午10:00-11:30

报告地点：商学院新大楼318

邀请部门：商学院经济学系

主持人：刘钻石

报告内容摘要： 

Financial capital and fixed capital tend to flow in opposite directions between poor and rich countries. This paper introduces frictions into a standard two-country neoclassical growth model to explain the pattern of two-way capital flows between emerging economies (such as China) and the developed world (such as the United States). We show how underdeveloped financial markets in China can lead to abnormally high rates of return to fixed capital but excessively low rates of return to financial capital relative to the U.S., hence driving out household savings (financial capital) on the one hand while simultaneously attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) on the other. When calibrated to match China’s high marginal product of capital and low real interest rate, our model is able to account for China’s rising financial capital outflows and FDI inflows as well as its massive trade imbalances in the past decades. Our model yields two additional implications that stand in sharp contrast to the existing literature: (i) Global trade imbalances between emerging economies and the developed world may be sustainable even in the long run; and (ii) the conventional wisdom that the "saving glut" of emerging economies is responsible for the global low world interest rate may be wrong.

 

报告人简介：

Zhiwei Xu（许志伟），上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院，副教授。2005年获南京理工大学工学学士学位，2009和2013分别获上海财经大学和香港科技大学经济学博士学位。主要从事宏观金融、经济周期和中国经济等领域研究。论文发表于Economic Journal，Journal of Economic and Dynamics Control、Quantitative Economics、Review of Economic Dynamics、《经济研究》、《管理世界》、《经济学季刊》等中英文期刊。其国际资本流动的研究获得2016浦山世界经济学青年论文奖。